Thursday, December 8, 2011

Coin Bias Test

Here's a simple experiment which I call the "Coin Bias Test". I'll have to think more about it and refine it because right now, its not good enough. I feel that in the strictest sense, it is not falsifiable. I shall explain that later. First, let me come to what the test is.

Many a times it happens that a person is not able to decide if he should do action A or action B. For instance, suppose its a festival and you have to go to either a carnival or at a friend's home to wish them. And you can go for only one. If asked, you might say you want to do both. Or it might happen that your decision is flip-flopping. However, it may happen that you are more inclined towards one. I make a sweeping statement now. I claim that you are always more inclined towards a particular one, and that you remain in that state for a "sufficiently" long time. That is to say that even though you might be flip-flopping, but unconsciously you are stuck to one.

This test can be applied to know the prejudice of a person towards one of the two choices they have, using toss of a coin. The test goes as follows. Say the person is confused between taking actions A and B. Take an unbiased coin, assign heads as A and tails as B. The crux is that this person should know this assignment. Further, tell the person that they should go according to the coin. That is, if heads comes, they should take action A, otherwise B. Now toss the coin. Lets say the outcome is heads. If the person is comfortable with the outcome, then I say that nothing can be inferred from the test. However, if a person shows discomfort, in some way, for example that they ask for more tosses, then they are subconsciously inclined towards taking action B. Hence we can know the bias of the person using toss of the coin.

The problem is that it is not falsifiable. If the person is comfortable with the outcome, well and good. Otherwise, if the person claims that though they want another toss, they are very sure they are not inclined towards action B, this cannot be tested as then I could claim that their subconscious wants to take action B. So strictly speaking, its not a good enough test. I am still building upon it and the following extension (in the next post) of the test might provide solution to the previous problem.

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